Before we start I’ll just preface everything that follows with the obvious point that many people will get hit by this virus situation far harder than I ever will, and I truly hope we manage to contain it swiftly and the death toll and damage done to the economy, and therefore peoples livelihoods, is as minimal as possible.
But with that said…
… what a time to pick to quit your job eh?! 🙂
When I handed my notice a mere 6 weeks ago, markets were booming and everyone was still talking about Brexit, what a different world we live in now!
Now I am “semi-FIREing” into a triple threat of:
- Markets plunging, so my portfolio is dropping like a fly.
- Widespread panic, making starting a fledgling business like I plan to much more risky.
- To top it all off, my betting portfolio took a huge tumble over the last week as well. I thought these things are supposed to be uncorrelated, but… apparently lady luck would suggest otherwise! 🙂
The some other slight annoyances as well:
- I could have probably gotten away with working (and getting a salary) for another month or two whilst “Working From Home” if I’d have delayed pulling the trigger for a couple of months.
- One of the main reasons I wanted to get out at this exact time is because we have a few holidays coming up, one of which is to a Eurocamp in France in early May. It looks like the chances of this blowing over by then are pretty slim, but we will see.
- Due to the lack of sporting events the chances of me making a decent income via the Matched/Betting in the first few months of Funemployment are also looking pretty slim!
- A brief thought crossed my mind that maybe if I held on for a bit I could have applied for voluntary redundancy due to all of this. A very big What If, so will not think about it any further!
- We only have 3 bog rolls left…
Let’s throw some rational optimism into the mix just for the craic shall we?
- Stock Market – I can buy the market on the cheap. Yes, I know it’s against all FI wisdom but I haven’t put any money into the market for a long while (apart from my regular pension contributions). This was deliberate so I could save up a cash buffer. However now with the market crashing it would seem stupid not to wade in like a fly fisher on steroids!? The two questions are just how much, and when to get involved. My feeling right now is that we are going to go lower, but I’ve stuck 10k into VWRL yesterday to get myself started. I know you are not supposed to time the market but on the other hand be greedy when others are fearful and all of that. The thing is, I don’t want to/can’t deplete our cash buffer too much because, well, we need to eat!
- Matched/Betting – Irish Racing is still going on behind closed doors for the foreseeable, so might be able to eek a few hundred a week from that, if results go well. Also it provides a nice opportunity to try out a few new things such as Casino offers. Golf bot is dead until they start that back up though!
- Business – With less time to actually gamble/match bet, realistically I should have actually more time to work on writing some other bot ideas I have. Lack of sporting events should not impede this work because to test something out you generally just need some event data to test on, and there are some events on still, so that’s all good.
Having said all of that, I would lie if I said I am not somewhat anxious about being penniless in 6 months time with no prospects of being able to get a new job, because of the global economy and jobs market having crashed!!! I know – many others will be in the same position and even worse not because of their own choosing, but in a way I think I will feel worse if things go badly because it was my own decision that ultimately caused me to be in this situation.
Anyway… let’s finish on a positive…
slow down
There is one other potentially huge benefit that not many people are talking about (which is kinda fair enough because you would get pole-axed if you started talking about “The Benefits of Coronavirus” on the mainstream news)
I’m of the opinion that we’re all rushing around in our modern day busy lives far too much to stop and appreciate the simple things, most of the time. I know there are some zen masters out there that manage to block everything else out and keep a nice simplified and minimalistic life, but for the rest of us, it’s hard to do that while actually keeping a foot in the real world as well. There is a very real trade off between one type of life and the other.
This thing is going to force everyone more into the simple way of life. I’m actually looking forward to not feeling pressured to always be going out and socialise all the time, kick back and get some reading done, and try to work on some of my projects.
I guess I would have been doing most of that anyway at this time, but there is a definite benefit of not having the choice of doing being able to do literally anything I wanted do, on any given day. The paradox of choice may well have caused me to procrastinate on what to actually start doing…. So this might actually get me into a better routine to start off with than if I’d semi-FIRE’d into more normal circumstances.
This situation works much better for the introverts out there such as myself, but for those that feel most comfortable in the company of others or being out and about, it is going to be much harder. Indeed, I don’t really see the big fuss about lockdown or quarantine myself, but being kinda the opposite, Mrs T is far more worried about it. So for the extroverts out there, I feel for you! 🙁
last day
It was supposed to be my last day at work today, with my leaving do last night, which obviously got cancelled!
However due to all of this I said I would be willing to work any extra they needed me for. I feel like any extra guaranteed income I can get at the moment is worth it’s weight in gold.
Extra money to stick into VWRL if nothing else!!!
They’ve only agreed 1 extra week so far (16 years service, cheers for helping me out when needed fellas) but I’m hoping I’ll get at least one more after that, and hoping that things are going to look a bit more certain at that stage. With football and racing possibly coming back at some point in April I’ll hopefully be able to get some extra money rolling in from the gambling again soon enough, and the fears will fade away into distant memory. We have a family holiday in England to a big house in 2 weeks time anyway, so if I get 2 weeks extra it would be a pretty convenient outcome! 1
As I said at the start, I know this is going to affect many many people far worse than me. Thinking of all the front line workers such as the NHS and police force that are going to be working long and hard and putting their own health at risk for everyone makes me feel extremely humble. Plus many will be laid off involuntarily, many people will become infected, and many, mainly older people will end up dying from this as well.
These facts put any worries I’ve written about above into perspective. But I just felt like writing an update and you can’t not mention the virus situation!
Stay safe, wash your balls etc…
Some good further reading:
Morgan Housel is great as usual: Here, here, here and here
A great podcast from The MadFIentist with the soothing tones of JL Collins
MMM’s uber rational take
The world statistics for the virus
Finally something really hilarious to cheer you up (warning, very childish humour!)
Notes:
- Assuming we can still go away. Unless we are on full lockdown it should be fine, we can just go and be in social isolation down in Devon in a nice house ↩
Discussion (23) ¬
After such a long bull run its refreshening for some FIRE bloggers to finally come out and update on the impact of their own previously rosy FIRE choices.
It will be very helpful for us early in our FIRE ambitions. This stuff can and does happen!
Hope all works out well for all
No point in not being honest Mr Scientist is there!
To be fair my position was never particularly rosy in the first place, and the stock market crash has not really affected our position too much compared to someone who was going for a full, but right on the 4% rule FIRE, our NW was roughly just over 1/3 in stocks, and under 1/3 cash and house equity
However regarding to quitting work and trying to start a business with less savings, I was always taking a bigger risk than most do.
It could of course (fingers crossed) still work out absolutely fine, but the uncertainty is what is making it a brown trousers time for me right now. As with most other people out there barring those with huge nest eggs that can easily withstand a downturn.
Still, all very interesting to see how fragile most of our plans our, eh!? 🙂
Thanks for the well wishes and same to you
What were the odds on all that happening at the same time, eh?
Good luck with VWRL, that’s where most of my money will be going when I get paid later in the month. Although the markets can still go down, once the world gets back to normal (or as close to normal as it can, with the inevitable casualties), things will start to pick up again.
I’ve already been receiving mails from various betting companies about new Casino offers so despite not wanting to go down that route, it looks like I have no alternative but to do so to try to make some extra money. Me and my sis have been checking out online bingo but that’s just gambling!
That last link – hilarious and much-needed friviolity in these dark times!
All the best TFS, hope you and your family remain safe.
weenie recently posted…December 2019 Savings, plus Round Up
It’s amazing how quickly the landscape can change in just a few short weeks from handing in your notice to now. But, you prepared well with a serious cash buffer and have long demonstrated an ability to turn in some decent money outside the confines of regular employment. I’m sure things will continue to pan out as you’d expect over the medium to long-term. Look forward to hearing how it goes on the other side. Right, better go wash my balls again 🙂
Thanks PF – I really hope your optimism proves well judged 🙂
All the best to you and yours as well of course, and glad to hear you are following the hygiene guidelines 🙂
its a perfect storm FS!
If its any consolation, I’m prob not far behind you.
The end of my job is not something I’m solely in control of though..
Uncertain times, and I too am feeling sick in the pit of the old stomach for sure
Yea not an easy time for anyone.
At least we can all try to get through this together, a bit of unity can never a bad thing for the country the way things have been going recently!
Hi TFS, you’re already ahead by looking at the whole situation optimistically and not getting paralysed by the doom and gloom of live updates and Twitter – which is admittedly how I’ve spent most of the past two weeks!
Aside from recognising the difficulty that a lot of people will face over the next coming months, I’m also looking forward to this pause in every day life. I think (and hope) that we’ll emerge a much stronger and kinder society after this.
All the best!
Haha, I have to admit it’s hard to pry your eyes away from all the updates isn’t it!?! I don’t go on Twitter that much but my usage has increased over the last few weeks.
Quite annoying really as should be using this extra time away from social obligations, commuting and keeping up with sporting events to do something more productive, but it’s hard not to feel like you have to keep up with all the latest!
I really hope that there is some good that can come out of this and that sort of thing is one of them.
Cheers for the words of positivity Mindy 🙂
Last Thursday was probably the best day to buy shares for a few years, certainly in the UK, so well done. There may be some even better days to buy in the next few weeks for those with the available cash and the long-term confidence needed to buy. I have the latter but not the former.
Looks like you are right, another big drop on opening today.
I “stupidly” (in hindsight, obvs) went in again when it went slightly up on Friday, which I am now regretting as it’s 10% down again since then already. Haha… Ah well, more buying opportunities present themselves coming up!
Hey, TFS! Thanks for the update and glad to hear that you are in good spirits, all things considered. I remembered that you were going to quit around this time… Timing sucks but there’s always positives and it looks like you’re finding them. We’ll keep on rolling with the punches! All the best!
Insourcelife recently posted…DIY Boat Fishing Rod Holder
Thanks, and same to you, hope the beach house life is still treating you well / keeping you busy 🙂
Crazy how quick this has all developed! And now the horse racing has been postponed!
I guess time to do those casino offers! (I wonder how much the casino’s online are doing as everyone is in lockdown?)
I would imagine Casino revenue is slightly up but no where near enough to cover the loss in sports betting revenue. Hopefully I can make their figures even worse haha 😉
Hi TFS,
A slightly similar experience. I pulled the plug for a ‘mini-FI’ session in December with the view I would look for a new job around April.
With this kicking off, it has trashed my plans and I now need to hunker down and wait it out. If I had know this was coming I would have sat tight at the last job and picked up a few more months money before being let go. THey would have let me go as my project was finished and with no new work planned I would have been seen as non essential.
I have watched my investment roller coaster of the past few weeks.
I watch LinkedIn as more people get laid off, contractors not having their contracts renewed, so being dropped and full timers being laid off as companies start to streamline their staff to try and survive.
I would pump a bit of cash into the market, but I need my cash to survive. When I read the media saying this could go on for a year, I need to keep my money. My tenant has also lost they job so I have a BTL to pay and basically paid for my tenant to live rent free, as I doubt the government are really going to pay the rent! Which is why they are talking of rent and mortgage holidays. I may then need to pay to have my tenant evicted yet so costs rising and income depleting by the day.
I hope you have enough cash to see you through theses coming months as income streams dry up.
Good luck, keep posting as we all need to stay safe and keep our sanity and get through this. If anything, you can be blessed that we are on a FI oath, we have savings and a buffer. There are some out there with no savings and no job.
I am so in awe of the NHS workers out there risking their lives to help others. Also respectful of the supermarket workers, who get a bad press, but are now showing how important and dependent we are on them. We don’t give them the credit that is due. These are the times when we see who really helps to run the country.
Sparklebee recently posted…When it rains, it pours
Thanks for the comment Sparklebee
It’s ironic really isn’t it that you think having cash on hand for a market tank is great and you’ll plough it all in, but you don’t think about the wider situation of what would actually cause that in the first place is obviously massive uncertainty, in which case maintaining that cash buffer seems more important than buying stocks at good prices.
I see your latest post is called “When it rains, it pours” – couldn’t have put it better myself!
But yea, at least we have cash buffers and also are happy living a relatively frugal life already, so it doesn’t feel like a major lifestyle change now we are limited in our spending/doing options.
Agreed on the NHS etc… travesty that the lower end of the spectrum are paid so badly when you look at it they are the ones that are keeping the country going. Despite being an investor I think there is far too much money going to capital and not enough going to workers right now.
Cheers
Hope you’re doing okay and that the volumes of great advice that have been posted in FIRE forums (by yourself included!) will help all of us through this. I do wonder how many folk living pay cheque to pay cheque will manage if they’re cut to 80% of income with an uncertain future? You think about having a 3 month emergency fund and how it could be a real necessity as opposed to a “nice to have”. And then I wonder why I’d never even heard of this advice before I found FIRE. Anyway, all the best, keep posting, who knows I may even go back to my blog with all this time in the house!
That would be another thing to add to the “unforeseen positives” list… Jim McG coming back to blogging! 🙂
I would hope that most can easily live off 80% of income considering they have got zero other expenses apart from food and bills. But you are right there are probably some that still somehow cannot manage that, but they were probably the ones that were already underwater going into this situation.
I am very glad I have a somewhat huge “emergency fund” – It’s probably 2.5 years of our expenses maybe more if our spending is depressed for any length of time. But yea… not really the sort of situation I imagined using it for but I guess that is the whole point.
Cheers and all the best to you too.
Stay safe. I hope the front liners won’t have to get sick. The stock market is going volatile that we can make anything with a shorter holding period.
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